Politics

[leigh white]

Another Deadlock, yawn.

[Moon boy]

8 hours ago, bwfcfan5 said:

According to guardian these are three concessions Boris has made to get a deal with EU.

Concession No1. (most surprising) 

The Level Playing Field is back. Boris Johnson has agreed that the UK must be in line with EU norms on climate, environment and workers’ rights for a Free Trade Agreement.

Concession No 2 (on the cards) Back to Northern Ireland only backstop. It’s not called the NI-only backstop, but the proposal of February 2018 (i.e. when EU suggested it). UK has accepted NI will be subject to EU customs rules and oversight of EU authorities, including ECJ.

Concession No 3 Consent. 

Boris Johnson has abandoned DUP veto.  New system envisages allowing Stormont Assembly to vote whether rebranded backstop applies by simple majority of those present in chamber. First vote scheduled 4 years after entry into force.

Number one is great and I’d be far closer to backing a deal where the long term post transition aim was regulatory alignment. Number 2 has been well publicised. Number 3 - I suspect is problematic for unionists in NI. Given my understanding is they cannot command a simple majority were the assembly to sit they have as things stand no clear and effective veto. Which means they may feel they are at risk of being locked in again. 

Look like Arlene’s not having no. 3

[Mounts Kipper]

8 hours ago, leigh white said:

Another Deadlock, yawn.

This proposed new deal should have the backing of Corbyn and the Labour Party, this would mean the DUP and ERG would not matter, Will Corbyn back it? I doubt he will, and that about sums labour up under the worst leader they’ve ever had. 

Edited October 17, 2019 by Mounts Kipper

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

This proposed new deal should have the backing of Corbyn and the Labour Party, this would mean the DUP and ERG would not matter, Will Corbyn back it? I doubt he will, and that about sums labour up under the worst leader they’ve ever had. 

Labours position is any deal needs a confirmatory referendum. I suspect they’d back it with that in place. Would the deal as it stands be backed by enough Labour backbench rebels to outweigh DUP and ERG opposition? Probably not. Unless ERG abandon DUP. 
 

I can’t see Boris wanting to risk losing the vote. Think we are heading for a delay. I mean even if full legal text of deal was available right now there isn’t time to get legislation passed by 31st in all likelihood. Nor really time on EU side. 

 

[Mounts Kipper]

16 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Labours position is any deal needs a confirmatory referendum. I suspect they’d back it with that in place. Would the deal as it stands be backed by enough Labour backbench rebels to outweigh DUP and ERG opposition? Probably not. Unless ERG abandon DUP. 
 

I can’t see Boris wanting to risk losing the vote. Think we are heading for a delay. I mean even if full legal text of deal was available right now there isn’t time to get legislation passed by 31st in all likelihood. Nor really time on EU side. 

 

Corbyn won’t back anything Johnson brings back. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Corbyn won’t back anything Johnson brings back. 

Not straight without amendments no. But he might with a referendum attached. 

I'm not sure the game is to get Corbyn to back it its to get his backbenchers. Given the political aim is full alignment with EU regulations that is more likely to get the Labour backbenchers on board - though of course in the PD its not legally binding. 

The deal is essentially the one the EU offered initially and Boris said in HoC "no Conservative government ever could or ever should agree to such a deal". I wonder if he will regret that statement as it is already being played out by the media. 

[Mounts Kipper]

11 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Not straight without amendments no. But he might with a referendum attached. 

I'm not sure the game is to get Corbyn to back it its to get his backbenchers. Given the political aim is full alignment with EU regulations that is more likely to get the Labour backbenchers on board - though of course in the PD its not legally binding. 

The deal is essentially the one the EU offered initially and Boris said in HoC "no Conservative government ever could or ever should agree to such a deal". I wonder if he will regret that statement as it is already being played out by the media. 

Corbyn knows that a Tory government will never give consent for a second referendum. He has included that into his requirements to gain his support for nothing more than to stop any deal that Johnson brings back, despite the deal offering seemingly everything the Labour Party wanted to have included in any deal. The mans a complete joke and folk will pass judgement on labour at the GE and a good chance they’ll come 3rd in a 2 horse race. 

Edited October 17, 2019 by Mounts Kipper

[Guest]

Just now, Mounts Kipper said:

Corbyn knows that a Tory government will never give consent for a second referendum. He has included that into his requirements to gain his support for nothing more than to stop any deal that Johnson brings back, despite the deal offering seemingly everything the Labour Party wanted to have included in any deal. The mans a complete joke and folk will pass judgement on labour at the GE amd food chance they’ll come 3rd in a 2 horse race. 

Hang on a minute - he's included that because his party is hopelessly divided with the majority of it wanting the party to push for remain. So he's trying to find a compromise over and above his own view.

The deal does not offer all that Labour wanted either - no customs partnership for the whole UK which was the major divergence and main requirement. 

Johnson's brought back a deal he said was unacceptable when the EU initially offered it. Perhaps you want to address how and why he's done that?

[Spider]

The irony of British colonialism coming back to bite us on the arse is rather potent.

Without Norn Iron, this would probably have been wrapped up 18 months ago.

Quick hands up from the Brexiteers, and I know this is very hypothetical, but play ball - if you had the choice, would you:

* Give Ulster back to Eire and have full Brexit on UK terms

* Keep Ulster in the UK and have this half arsed, suits no-one Brexit that both sides will claim a victory with?

 

Simple choice.

[bolty58]

Anything but simple. No deal, keep NI and deal with what eventuates.

[Salford Trotter]

38 minutes ago, Spider said:

The irony of British colonialism coming back to bite us on the arse is rather potent.

Without Norn Iron, this would probably have been wrapped up 18 months ago.

Quick hands up from the Brexiteers, and I know this is very hypothetical, but play ball - if you had the choice, would you:

* Give Ulster back to Eire and have full Brexit on UK terms

* Keep Ulster in the UK and have this half arsed, suits no-one Brexit that both sides will claim a victory with?

 

Simple choice.

It's axiomatic that NI will end up uniting with ROI at some point so might as well just accelerate the union

[Spider]

1 minute ago, Salford Trotter said:

It's axiomatic that NI will end up uniting with ROI at some point so might as well just accelerate the union

It would make more sense

99% of folk on the mainland clearly couldn't give a fuck.

The bitter sectarianism will continue unabated, which it would have anyway.

Would be the right solution.

[bolty58]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

It would make more sense

99% of folk on the mainland clearly couldn't give a fuck.

The bitter sectarianism will continue unabated, which it would have anyway.

Would be the right solution.

I would suggest that this is an outlandish exaggeration.

[Spider]

Just now, bolty58 said:

I would suggest that this is an outlandish exaggeration.

OK, I'll go with 90%

But look beyond the Celtic/Rangers bubble and you'll not find many people that would have a real problem with unification.

 

[bolty58]

Just now, Spider said:

OK, I'll go with 90%

But look beyond the Celtic/Rangers bubble and you'll not find many people that would have a real problem with unification.

 

I would have to disagree. I would suspect that the ratio would be similar to that of the referendum.

Of course we will never know so it's easy to bandy about exaggerated figures to try and prove a point.

If they had a referendum in NI about staying with the UK or becoming part of a united Ireland,  what sort of (realistic) result would you expect?

[Spider]

Let's be honest the loyalists will claim a vic

6 minutes ago, bolty58 said:

I would have to disagree. I would suspect that the ratio would be similar to that of the referendum.

Of course we will never know so it's easy to bandy about exaggerated figures to try and prove a point.

If they had a referendum in NI about staying with the UK or becoming part of a united Ireland,  what sort of (realistic) result would you expect?

In Northern Ireland 100% of the people give a shit, of course.

But I had a discussion with a few people over the weekend and the utter indifference amongst Mainlanders struck me.

If you go back to before 1921, it was Irish. Like much of the old British Empire, it's simply somewhere we colonised and pissed off the locals.

It will ALWAYS be divided. But if it means a nice clean Brexit, what difference does it make if that division is owned by Ireland rather than the UK? They'll still hate each other just as much.

Edited October 17, 2019 by Spider

[Salford Trotter]

3 minutes ago, Spider said:

OK, I'll go with 90%

But look beyond the Celtic/Rangers bubble and you'll not find many people that would have a real problem with unification.

 

If there isn't already there will be a republican majority in the north in the next few years which will lead to a referendum. I'm not so sure the ROI will relish a union at this moment but I am sure we will see the 32 counties as one country in the next decade.

[Duck Egg]

10 minutes ago, Salford Trotter said:

If there isn't already there will be a republican majority in the north in the next few years which will lead to a referendum. I'm not so sure the ROI will relish a union at this moment but I am sure we will see the 32 counties as one country in the next decade.

I'm sure you're right.  In previous polls the ROI have generally been indifferent towards unification but it does seem inevitable.

Hardliners in the loyalist community will kick off big time though.  I can't decide whether that would be something that would burn itself out pretty quickly or be something akin to a return to the troubles 

[Salford Trotter]

Just now, Duck Egg said:

I'm sure you're right.  In previous polls the ROI have generally been indifferent towards unification but it does seem inevitable.

Hardliners in the loyalist community will kick off big time though.  I can't decide whether that would be something that would burn itself out pretty quickly or be something akin to a return to the troubles 

I suspect it will be a turbulent period, nothing is straightforward over there but if both communities can look beyond the immediate issues and on to a brighter economic future then it makes sense 

[Cheese]

Only a couple of days left now till we find out what we voted for 3 years ago. How exciting.

[Sweep]

1 hour ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Corbyn won’t back anything Johnson brings back. 

Correct, and I reckon he'll whip his lot as well, so they fail to back it as well

 

I bet Johnson wishes the rest of the Tory party had backed TM's deal when they had a majority....... Although he'd never have been PM, so maybe not

[Ani]

If Boris has made concessions as detailed above what are we getting in return ? 
 

The EU had agreed a deal so if we are now agreeing concessions to that what is the upside ? 
 

or rather than concessions are these just changes ?

Edited October 17, 2019 by Ani

[fatolive]

Ironic that a line drawn against the will of a majority to suit a minority who wished to remain in a union,  is now the stumbling block for a majority who wish to leave a union 

 the arguments re Brexit and “we voted to leave as a country so no splitting of that country with some staying in some leaving” means they would have also been against the partition of Ireland in the first place, if they applied the same logic 

think any poll now would be surprising , a lot of unionist business leaders would vote with their business needs rather than loyalty I’d suspect 

[Salford Trotter]

5 minutes ago, Ani said:

If Boris has made concessions as detailed above what are we getting in return ? 
 

The EU had agreed a deal so if we are now agreeing concessions to that what is the upside ? 
 

or rather than concessions are these just changes ?

By what has been reported, it's worse than May's deal but let's wait until we see the detail. 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Just been announced that a deal has been agreed!!

So fresh, that it's not yet known if or how exactly satisfies the DUP.