Site Supporter Cheese Posted March 20, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, gonzo said: Question - what are the rates of infuflenza and influenza related deaths in china and Italy in any normal year? and could their death rates be high because they aren’t used to getting flu? (Question raised by a mental pub cleaner at the galleon pub in Blackpool) I've heard that question asked loads. They're missing the point entirely. A more pertinent form of the question would be "How many people have to spend a few days on a ventilator to recover from a normal influenza that we already have a vaccine for?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, gonzo said: Question - what are the rates of infuflenza and influenza related deaths in china and Italy in any normal year? and could their death rates be high because they aren’t used to getting flu? (Question raised by a mental pub cleaner at the galleon pub in Blackpool) ?? It varies year on year, depending on how effective the flu vaccine is in any particular season, how many people take the vaccine, and the weather. Question is irrelevant. Because we've had continual seasonal flu for years, healthcare systems have been built with this is mind, so if well funded, they can cope with the fluctuations in seasonal flu numbers to a certain extent. lots of people still die of it. Its the effectiveness of the system (general public health/vaccine/antivirals/support systems) that is the most important factor . The problem with Covid 19 is that it is new, and we don't have the infrastructure to deal with it. The last time we had a pandemic like this was in 1918, when healthcare systems weren't developed . NHS has only been around since 1948. We haven't prepared correctly for this, partly because we haven't had to do it before, and partly because it would cost Trillions of £ which we have spent in other areas. The countries affected by SARS in 2003, China, Hong Kong, Singapore had a head start on us, they've done this before, and thats partly why they've dealt with it in a better way so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger_Dubuis Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 TOILET ROLLS UPDATE Plenty available at the big Home Bargains near Sainsburys in town - probably have to get there in the next half hour mind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said: But goes back to my question regarding schools how do they police who’s parents are key workers and not most could tip up yeah in a key worker off you pop The Coronavirus Bill, which will be passed next week, gives the government the ability to rule over who can enter or leave any premise in the UK if it fits their criteria of unreasonably increasing the population risk to virus spread - they will be able to warn, fine and detain those who break the new laws. If loads of people exploited the school rules, I'm sure they would start to apply this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wardrobe Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 38 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said: But goes back to my question regarding schools how do they police who’s parents are key workers and not most could tip up yeah in a key worker off you pop My sons school sent an email last night asking for parents to reply if there child is one that should go in and to provide details of employment. Not sure if they will actually check up on that though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted March 20, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 20, 2020 This is a macabre, yet addictive page updating totals around the wold. It's not going away. Not even close. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frank_spencer Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 My lads been told he can go in as he's a spesh kid but without his 1 to 1 support. Wouldn't be fair on him, the staff or the other kids. So he's stayin home with us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 51 minutes ago, gonzo said: Question - what are the rates of infuflenza and influenza related deaths in china and Italy in any normal year? and could their death rates be high because they aren’t used to getting flu? (Question raised by a mental pub cleaner at the galleon pub in Blackpool) Something not right about the number of deaths in Italy, wonder if these poor folk could have flu and corona virus? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Rudy Posted March 20, 2020 Author Members Share Posted March 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Spider said: This is a macabre, yet addictive page updating totals around the wold. It's not going away. Not even close. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Kin’ell Spain has shot up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, Spider said: This is a macabre, yet addictive page updating totals around the wold. It's not going away. Not even close. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Spain closing in on Italy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said: Something not right about the number of deaths in Italy, wonder if these poor folk could have flu and corona virus? It's going to be the same in every western country, possibly until the effects of social distancing, testing etc start to kick in, 4 or 5 weeks down the track, if they work. If its gets a hold in countries with poor medical and support services, it will be much worse, and we won't hear about the figures until later on in their timeline - I'd be surprised if there aren't already vastly more deaths in the likes of Pakistan and India If we get through to autumn without a large % population immunity, or effective antivirals it's going to come back until we have a vaccine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bolton_blondie Posted March 20, 2020 Members Share Posted March 20, 2020 Waiting to see if school will still accept my child in school next week. If not im still working! She will have to go in the office answering the phone to the patients 😂 I'm so worried about the patients I visit in Little Lever and Breightmet who have no family 😢 please check on your neighbours. Post your number to them. They need us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyther_Matt Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, bolton_blondie said: Waiting to see if school will still accept my child in school next week. If not im still working! She will have to go in the office answering the phone to the patients 😂 I'm so worried about the patients I visit in Little Lever and Breightmet who have no family 😢 please check on your neighbours. Post your number to them. They need us. You're considered a key worker, surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, bolton_blondie said: Waiting to see if school will still accept my child in school next week. If not im still working! She will have to go in the office answering the phone to the patients 😂 I'm so worried about the patients I visit in Little Lever and Breightmet who have no family 😢 please check on your neighbours. Post your number to them. They need us. Good luck - it's people like you who will be the most important in the coming weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Something not right about the number of deaths in Italy, wonder if these poor folk could have flu and corona virus? Italy has an average age of 45 in their population. China has an average age of 38. UK is 40. Given each increased year of age adds a % to your risk - age likely being the single biggest factor in determining probability of outcome - it makes sense to an extent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 40 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: It's going to be the same in every western country, possibly until the effects of social distancing, testing etc start to kick in, 4 or 5 weeks down the track, if they work. If its gets a hold in countries with poor medical and support services, it will be much worse, and we won't hear about the figures until later on in their timeline - I'd be surprised if there aren't already vastly more deaths in the likes of Pakistan and India If we get through to autumn without a large % population immunity, or effective antivirals it's going to come back until we have a vaccine. Do we know that for sure, China wasn’t as bad as Italy this seems a peculiarly high level of deaths. Think we will know more in a fortnight, I suspect deaths elsewhere will be less and hope that’s exactly the case. Edited March 20, 2020 by Mounts Kipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bolton_blondie Posted March 20, 2020 Members Share Posted March 20, 2020 Just now, Leyther_Matt said: You're considered a key worker, surely? Yes but still no definate answer from school. Hopefully hear today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bolton_blondie Posted March 20, 2020 Members Share Posted March 20, 2020 In other news the NHS has finally provided its community staff with masks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted March 20, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, bolton_blondie said: In other news the NHS has finally provided its community staff with masks! 150 lorry loads set off from government warehouse with ppe in them, last night. Another similar number still be be dispatched. Should be ok now, certainly for a while. Hopefully manufacturers can meet subsequent demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said: Do we know that for sure, China wasn’t as bad as Italy this seems a peculiarly high level of deaths. Think we will no more in a fortnight, I suspect deaths elsewhere will be less and hope that’s exactly the case. Don't compare the progress of infections rates in different countries using the confirmed cases numbers - they are a red herring. The confirmed cases number varies massively from country to country depending on how many they have tested and at what stage in their timeline the tests were carried out. You need to be looking at the amount of deaths, and the hsitoric growth rate to get a more accurate idea of how the infection is faring. when the growth rate starts to drop, that means the infection rates dropped a few weeks prior. The quarantine of 60 million people in China, at an earlier stage than Italy (when there was less people infected) is thought to be the main reason why they have had less total deaths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Do we know that for sure, China wasn’t as bad as Italy this seems a peculiarly high level of deaths. Think we will no more in a fortnight, I suspect deaths elsewhere will be less and hope that’s exactly the case. I'm not overly convinced we've ever had the true numbers from China, my contacts there have painted a very bleak picture and suggested that they may have had more deaths than reported Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted March 20, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sweep said: I'm not overly convinced we've ever had the true numbers from China, my contacts there have painted a very bleak picture and suggested that they may have had more deaths than reported I wonder how effective their data gathering etc was/is particularly for outlying areas. Also given their ignorance at the beginning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 42 minutes ago, Wardrobe said: My sons school sent an email last night asking for parents to reply if there child is one that should go in and to provide details of employment. Not sure if they will actually check up on that though Well that’s something, like you say will they check I don’t know but it could put the fakes off like the janitor says honesty will play apart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Just now, Sweep said: I'm not overly convinced we've ever had the true numbers from China, my contacts there have painted a very bleak picture and suggested that they may have had more deaths than reported Correct - we should have copied South Korea - more links to China than Italy, had the virus before Italy, tested 300K many more than Italy and earlier in the timeline, took other earlier measures, they have a similar population to Italy and high average age 41.8. They are at 94 deaths and their growth rate is now tiny in comparison to W Europe. They have found that the young are much more likely to be asymptomatic, and much more likely to spread the virus - they tested thousands, anyone found positive, traced back as many people that they'd recently been in contact with and they were isolated too - this stopped the spread early on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted March 20, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 20, 2020 Did we have sufficient testing kits/personnel? Like you've said previously, they'd had experience from sars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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