Rudy Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Escobarp said: This genuine pal? http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Wuhan,-endless-queues-for-ashes-of-coronavirus-dead-cast-doubts-on-numbers-49673.html make of it what you will. Might not be 45,000 but there’s no way it’s just over 3000 deaths in China 21 minutes ago, Dr Faustus said: Well, I think it's actually clear and it's a reflection from the ocean which makes it appear blue. Should maybe go in the conspiracies thread well actually the sky is blue because by the time sunlight reaches the earth all the gases and particles are scattered and blue light is scattered more than other colours because blue lights travel in shorter smaller waves. 😁 15 minutes ago, Sweep said: The girl who I speak to on a daily basis who lives in Wuhan (her husband also contacted it about a week ago...when China was saying they've got no more new cases) said to me she didn't know what figures China was reporting, but would be very surprised if there had been less than 10K deaths in Wuhan alone over the last few months. She's obviate very careful what she says, but I think it's safe to say she thinks China are underestimating their deaths. sadly, we'll never know Yeah it doesn’t surprise me but it’s not the time to be fuckin about with numbers when the rest of the world is watching their patterns first and could underestimate the scale of the damage. Edited March 28, 2020 by Rudy’s Message Quote
Casino Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 3 hours ago, gonzo said: You can’t just stop cashflow and expect a business to survive. Zero income for the next 3 months. Zero. Imagine that. he will be grabbing what he can while he’s ALLOWED to by the government. Any money we’ve taken has been correct change only and placed on floor while we stand 2 meters away. The rest have been urged to pay in the bank. I hope your window cleaner dude took the same measures. Whats they difference to window cleaner collecting money from a door step to a delivery driver? Postmen, yodel, take away drivers are all going to peoples doors making a living. Folk are swapping money in supermarkets all bloody day. I’m off out today carrying contract work where I won’t come in to contact with one single person. I’m stood 20ft away from the buildings at all times. I don’t want to go out, but I’ve got no choice. I’ve got a wife and two kids to feed and put a roof over their head. They come first before anyone I’m afraid. If I don’t complete this months contracts I can’t invoice and I won’t receive a penny to pay my bills or buy food. No cashflow kills a business like a heart attack. Just a note of caution and there's nowt you can do anyway, but send as many invoices as you like Its been a week of We aren't paying that because of the current situation for us In turn we don't pay and on it goes Quote
peelyfeet Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, Rudy’s Message said: @peelyfeet sorry to bug you but out of interest when do you expect this to peak in the UK? How bad do you think it’s going to get? Shoot from your hip (your bad hip 😁) sorry for the long post - if you want my guess without reading the rationale below, (it's only a guess not fact) it's possibly going to peak around 14th April for London and will last at least 2 weeks. mid May - June for Bolton, with probably a longer but less severe peak. It's going to be very bad for next month in London and possibly Birmingham, won't be as bad here but we may be in it for longer. To attempt to work this out we can only use evidence from our own historic death figures and compare them against others. Italy and China (if we believe them) are obviously the countries with the most historic data - can't trust Iran's figures and everyone else is close to or behind our timeline. We also need to bear in mind that the peaks we are measuring aren't national, they're predominantly for localised clusters in Wuhan and Lombardy, so we are probably comparing against London. Localised clusters will occur again in other areas of China and Italy, and we don't know exactly how they will pan out yet, but we suspect they will be slower and longer than Wuhan and Lombardy. When they hit a total of 80 deaths, China locked down 60 million people and an area the size of England and Wales, and restricted movement of 760 million. Their peak started 17 days later and lasted for 12 days. The most deaths in any 1 day was 150. Their exponential growth from lock-down (80 deaths) until their peak started was about 20% slower than UK from 80 deaths to today. Italy locked down nationally on 9th March, when they were at 463 deaths. It's 19 days later and we can't tell if they've peaked yet. It looked like they had started to peak 12 days later, on 21st March, but yesterdays big jump puts this into doubt. It might be a blip. Their exponential growth and % infected has been slowing for a week, so it looks like they are about to peak, but we can't tell yet. Their exponential growth has been about 20% faster than ours if we look at how we have fared from 100 deaths onwards, so far. We locked down on 24th March, on 335 deaths, 1 days in advance of Italy, and 6 days after China. Our lockdown isn't as stringent as Italy or China, but we brought in some restrictions on 16th March, which may have had a delaying effect. Therefore Wuhan data suggests at least 17 days of exponential growth after lockdown. Lombardy data suggests that the more deaths at time of lockdown, the longer it takes to get to the peak. If this is accurate then it suggests London peak will start at least 3 weeks from lockdown, so 14th April, and will last for possibly 12 days, so until 26th April. However we need to watch Italy, if their numbers continue to get bigger it suggests ours will too. Bolton and surrounding area are behind London, we currently think by about 2 weeks.The lockdown should stretch this out too because we've started it at a much earlier stage, so more likely the restrictions will delay spread and therefore the peak. by how many weeks is anyones guess, possibly late May onwards Edited March 28, 2020 by peelyfeet Quote
Rudy Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 Cheers for that. That answers things for me. Quote
Spider Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Well my daughter is back to feeling 100% today. Can taste her food and is full of energy. So either my food was shit last night, or this thing really is harmless for 99.99999% of kids. Quote
Guest Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, Spider said: Well my daughter is back to feeling 100% today. Can taste her food and is full of energy. So either my food was shit last night, or this thing really is harmless for 99.99999% of kids. Or both good news 🥳 Quote
ErnestTurnip Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Possibly the wrong thread but the way my kids schools and colleges are trying to keep them on board and doing stuff has been brilliant, a lot of them have been going above and beyond. One of mine should go to uni this year, they've been told there's no A-levels, and unis had been dishing out unconditional offers left, right, and centre but some of the college tutors have been doing daily videos and setting daily deadlines and the like and really putting some effort in so fair play to them. The college sent an email out on Thursday saying they are still hoping to be back in on April 20th but that's obviously based on optimism rather than anything else. Quote
Spider Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Is anywhere selling paint? B and Q website says they aren’t doing it. This May be about to improve my weekend. Quote
deane koontz Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Do we reckon there will be an actual lockdown in the future? Quote
Rudy Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, ErnestTurnip said: Possibly the wrong thread but the way my kids schools and colleges are trying to keep them on board and doing stuff has been brilliant, a lot of them have been going above and beyond. One of mine should go to uni this year, they've been told there's no A-levels, and unis had been dishing out unconditional offers left, right, and centre but some of the college tutors have been doing daily videos and setting daily deadlines and the like and really putting some effort in so fair play to them. The college sent an email out on Thursday saying they are still hoping to be back in on April 20th but that's obviously based on optimism rather than anything else. I’ve been told I have to do my PHD Viva voce in a zoom online meeting rather than face to face. Quote
Rudy Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: Is anywhere selling paint? B and Q website says they aren’t doing it. This May be about to improve my weekend. Wilkos Quote
gonzo Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spider said: Is anywhere selling paint? B and Q website says they aren’t doing it. This May be about to improve my weekend. Trade point is open. Click and collect or you can just go. Quote
Spider Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said: Wilkos 9 minutes ago, gonzo said: Trade point is open. Click and collect or you can just go. My missus hasn’t heard of either of those so I may get away with this. Thanks chaps Quote
Mounts Kipper Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Spider said: My missus hasn’t heard of either of those so I may get away with this. Thanks chaps Never heard of Wilkos? Really! Quote
Spider Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Never heard of Wilkos? Really! Unless they sell horse equipment or handbags, she’ll be oblivious Quote
burnden Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Wickes is open , i know this because my fpo is in a queue online to buy paint Quote
Sweep Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 First death in our village last night, a 70 odd year old bloke Quote
L/H White Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Spider said: Is anywhere selling paint? B and Q website says they aren’t doing it. This May be about to improve my weekend. No, I Pre ordered off screwfix Thursday to collect yesterday morning, with some brushes etc Got to screwfix, only gave the brushes as paint is non essential, how the fuck they deem brushes as essential I'll never know They've took over 30,000 products off their site Edited March 28, 2020 by L/H White Quote
radcliffe white Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Sweep said: First death in our village last night, a 70 odd year old bloke Underlying health conditions? Quote
Escobarp Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Huge jump in Spain both deaths and infections. Getting choppy these waters Quote
Rudy Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Sweep said: First death in our village last night, a 70 odd year old bloke You need an alibi? Quote
Sweep Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said: Underlying health conditions? Don't know to be honest, I don't know him, a few of my friends do though. From what I can gather he wasn't generally in good health already Quote
miamiwhite Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, deane koontz said: Do we reckon there will be an actual lockdown in the future? Isn't London in lockdown this weekend or meant to be ? I reckon Monday will be interesting when the weekend figures are collated, could well see something approaching a full lock down next week if figures are high. Quote
Guest Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, miamiwhite said: Isn't London in lockdown this weekend or meant to be ? I reckon Monday will be interesting when the weekend figures are collated, could well see something approaching a full lock down next week if figures are high. NiC is clear that there isn't a problem in London and he knows best Quote
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