Coronavirus

[miamiwhite]

Won't hear from Worthy10 for a while then 

[radcliffe white]

Care minister is back on piers Morgan for another bumming 

[Tombwfc]

I see the lefty rags are being traitors to the effort again this morning...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11450196/coronavirus-matt-hancock-testing-fiasco/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8244189/Coronavirus-tests-given-NHS-staff-let-return-work-FLAWED.html

[mickbrown]

3 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

I see the lefty rags are being traitors to the effort again this morning...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11450196/coronavirus-matt-hancock-testing-fiasco/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8244189/Coronavirus-tests-given-NHS-staff-let-return-work-FLAWED.html

Shhhhhh

[Spider]

The Finanacial Times - not prone to sensationalism - are saying the death figure is probably 41,000 based on actual data, not just hospitals.

Who are we to believe?

The government figure of 18,000 or the ONS who actually check every death certificate?

 

[Escobarp]

Is the problem not what’s on the death certificate? So it makes no difference who checks it as it’s at point or origin that it needs to be correct? Or am I missing something?

looking at 18k compared to usual 10k deaths figure that would also imply only an additional 8k deaths than normal which just doesn’t sit right does it?

[Tonge moor green jacket]

The daily mail one (assuming it's correct) is a factual point. Nothing political. Test kits giving unreliable results it seems, so are being withdrawn. 

Similarly with the other one, the current system isn't working well enough- as folk have pointed out, access to some of these testing centres is going to be a problem. No point having loads of capacity if it's not being utilised.

A reasonable bit of reporting for a change, from a couple of rags.

Perhaps the ST will be along at the weekend with more non-facts.

[Spider]

I imagine 41,000 is too high, but would expect the real number to be somewhere in between, so 30,000 or so.

[Rudy]

49 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Think that’s the plan 😂😂

none of us will be getting a summer holiday abroad I don’t think 

Mam and Dad Rudy bought a holiday home in Fuerteventura last year, think they might be having an argument on their hands. 

[Escobarp]

10 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

The daily mail one (assuming it's correct) is a factual point. Nothing political. Test kits giving unreliable results it seems, so are being withdrawn. 

Similarly with the other one, the current system isn't working well enough- as folk have pointed out, access to some of these testing centres is going to be a problem. No point having loads of capacity if it's not being utilised.

A reasonable bit of reporting for a change, from a couple of rags.

Perhaps the ST will be along at the weekend with more non-facts.

We won’t need to wait til weekend just hang around here mate 

[Burndens Bogs]

54 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Care minister is back on piers Morgan for another bumming 

Piers Morgan absolutely ruined her.

I would too.

[radcliffe white]

1 minute ago, Burndens Bogs said:

Piers Morgan absolutely ruined her.

I would too.

Aye a hint of filth 

[Sweep]

1 minute ago, Burndens Bogs said:

Piers Morgan absolutely ruined her.

I would too.

I wish he'd let her answer a question, he just seems to shout over the top of any response she attempts to give. I must admit, I was surprised to see her back being questioned again after last week, I'd have thought she would have been locked away after last weeks debacle

 

I'd happily bum her though

[green genie]

49 minutes ago, Spider said:

The Finanacial Times - not prone to sensationalism - are saying the death figure is probably 41,000 based on actual data, not just hospitals.

Who are we to believe?

The government figure of 18,000 or the ONS who actually check every death certificate?

 

The New York Times running piece on how the death rate for last month above previous average puts figure 33% above figure being used based on hospital cases.

[Spider]

I'm not having a pop at the government, by the way.

They're under pressure to be accurate but I now know for a fact that death certificates can take almost 2 weeks to be signed off at the moment.

What the likes of Piers Morgan fail to understand (or more likely prefer to ignore) is that rationality is the bedfellow of patience.

The public are wanting instant, immediate figures so they can go one-up on their preferred internet forums, but the truth is that deaths will take weeks to be fully verified and reported.

The peak may be over, but the horror of the real numbers isn't, i dont think.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Spider said:

I'm not having a pop at the government, by the way.

They're under pressure to be accurate but I now know for a fact that death certificates can take almost 2 weeks to be signed off at the moment.

What the likes of Piers Morgan fail to understand (or more likely prefer to ignore) is that rationality is the bedfellow of patience.

The public are wanting instant, immediate figures so they can go one-up on their preferred internet forums, but the truth is that deaths will take weeks to be fully verified and reported.

The peak may be over, but the horror of the real numbers isn't, i dont think.

Good quote, I’ll remember that

I don’t think the public are wanting instant numbers, they get it.

The media need a cadaver to feast on

[Ani]

1 hour ago, Escobarp said:

Is the problem not what’s on the death certificate? So it makes no difference who checks it as it’s at point or origin that it needs to be correct? Or am I missing something?

looking at 18k compared to usual 10k deaths figure that would also imply only an additional 8k deaths than normal which just doesn’t sit right does it?

It will be impossible to get an exact number of people who have died purely as a result of the virus. It may well be a factor and so mentioned on death certificate. But we keep hearing about people with underlying conditions. 
So if we accept an accurate figure is not possible the best guide has to the additional deaths as you highlight. This in itself is not accurate as 2020 might have been a ‘good’ year or a ‘bad’ one and we will never know that. 
 

This number will only be known a few weeks down the line which does not satisfy the current Demand for immediate updates. I am not sure we can use any other numbers. 

[Escobarp]

10 minutes ago, Ani said:

It will be impossible to get an exact number of people who have died purely as a result of the virus. It may well be a factor and so mentioned on death certificate. But we keep hearing about people with underlying conditions. 
So if we accept an accurate figure is not possible the best guide has to the additional deaths as you highlight. This in itself is not accurate as 2020 might have been a ‘good’ year or a ‘bad’ one and we will never know that. 
 

This number will only be known a few weeks down the line which does not satisfy the current Demand for immediate updates. I am not sure we can use any other numbers. 

Agree with that. I think the need for death rates has been driven by a mistake from the government in focusing on that solely in their initial reporting. And it’s now the opening gambit of every daily report and is evidenced on here by folks desire everyday to “know what the number of deaths was yesterday”. 
To me what it equally important and is most certainly a bigger number is the recovery rate. How many folk are going in and coming out of ICU and hospital? But it’s not really a metric that’s seen or discussed to my knowledge? It’s the biggest sign we are winning the war?
 

Of course one death is a death Too many and that is sad. I wish it could’ve been avoided. But to focus solely on that has instilled a macabre culture in a lot of people. We find ourselves and the media (when they’re not chasing a story about failings in the system and a scapegoat for it all) are fixated on death numbers. Goes back to what a few of us were saying yesterday around the media looking for the negative constantly. What we need now more than ever is a glimmer of positivity if there are any to be had grab onto it. Don’t over egg it and make it into something it’s not, but why shouldn’t we have some positivity against a backdrop of the most challenging times any of us are likely to have in our lifetime?
 

I’ve made a commitment to myself to try and avoid the negative people and stories where possible. I can’t see that having anything but a positive effect. Anyway I’m off on a tangential ramble so I will end it there. 
 

[Not in Crawley]

1 hour ago, Sweep said:

I wish he'd let her answer a question, he just seems to shout over the top of any response she attempts to give. I must admit, I was surprised to see her back being questioned again after last week, I'd have thought she would have been locked away after last weeks debacle

 

I'd happily bum her though

It wasn't an interview, it was Piers Morgan just shouting to get click bait for the show. That's wasn't a debate, and there were no winners, except ITV. 

[Guest]

I bet those countries who did manage to sign up to the EU scheme are happy with their investment of time and effort

🦕

[Tonge moor green jacket]

20 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I bet those countries who did manage to sign up to the EU scheme are happy with their investment of time and effort

🦕

Everyone's after the same stuff, at the same time. Good luck to the EU, or anyone getting what is required. And then having suitable storage and distribution networks.

A proper shit storm at the moment that will surely make countries think a little differently once it's all over.

[SatanGreavsie]

50 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Agree with that. I think the need for death rates has been driven by a mistake from the government in focusing on that solely in their initial reporting. And it’s now the opening gambit of every daily report and is evidenced on here by folks desire everyday to “know what the number of deaths was yesterday”. 
To me what it equally important and is most certainly a bigger number is the recovery rate. How many folk are going in and coming out of ICU and hospital? But it’s not really a metric that’s seen or discussed to my knowledge? It’s the biggest sign we are winning the war?
 

 

True, and also be interesting to know (though I guess it's a difficult thing to get a true picture on when both the people getting the stats and - more importantly - those who could provide them have more urgent things on) if that recovery rate is getting higher. Are those who are treating people learning, and sharing, tricks of the trade (as it were)  and best practice for this particular virus. There must - I guess - be things we know about treatment of the most dire cases that we had no idea about 2 months ago? If so then hopefully there's a mechanism to share those insights in place? Some of front line health people on here might be able to answer that?

[Spider]

Our frontline staff are all too busy playing Battlenips after Kent shared the game up at Bolton.

[peelyfeet]

 

 

1 hour ago, Escobarp said:

Agree with that. I think the need for death rates has been driven by a mistake from the government in focusing on that solely in their initial reporting. And it’s now the opening gambit of every daily report and is evidenced on here by folks desire everyday to “know what the number of deaths was yesterday”. 
To me what it equally important and is most certainly a bigger number is the recovery rate. How many folk are going in and coming out of ICU and hospital? But it’s not really a metric that’s seen or discussed to my knowledge? It’s the biggest sign we are winning the war?
 

Of course one death is a death Too many and that is sad. I wish it could’ve been avoided. But to focus solely on that has instilled a macabre culture in a lot of people. We find ourselves and the media (when they’re not chasing a story about failings in the system and a scapegoat for it all) are fixated on death numbers. Goes back to what a few of us were saying yesterday around the media looking for the negative constantly. What we need now more than ever is a glimmer of positivity if there are any to be had grab onto it. Don’t over egg it and make it into something it’s not, but why shouldn’t we have some positivity against a backdrop of the most challenging times any of us are likely to have in our lifetime?
 

I’ve made a commitment to myself to try and avoid the negative people and stories where possible. I can’t see that having anything but a positive effect. Anyway I’m off on a tangential ramble so I will end it there. 
 

  They  are going to continue using deaths as the main metric for now because its the most accurate way of measuring how the spread is doing.

We have no idea of  numbers for the overall recovered because we haven't tested anywhere near enough, so it would be a massive guess.

The recovered number from ICU is not good, and is very out of date - the latest report (4pm 16th April ) shows less than 1,500 out of 5,500 admitted have been discharged alive (1,500 have died in ICU, the rest are still in there) according to ICNARC - I don't think that would spread much joy if reported by the mass media unfortunately.

the report is here

https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

I understand what you are saying, but unfortunately deaths is by far the most accurate way of measuring at the moment -  It would be rate of infection and new daily cases if we had accurate figures, but we aren't testing anywhere near enough to use them as a yard stick yet.

Drops in deaths rates should be cheered, but they won't be so much by the media because they're still deaths.

 

[Ani]

Btw if we develop a vaccine that works by September that the Govt has a commercial interest in we could kiss goodbye to recession as that will be worth £bns arround the world. 
 

Assuming all testing is accepted by others mean it is fit to use.