Don't have a link but saw on news earlier that someone predicts we'll have 30k deaths by end of may

At an average of 277 a day that suggests we're on a downward trend

Though someone else reckons half of Europe death tolls are in care homes 

And Wuhan revised it's death toll by 50% adding 1290 outside of hospitals

So not sure if that UK prediction is hospital only, or everyone

2 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

Don't have a link but saw on news earlier that someone predicts we'll have 30k deaths by end of may

At an average of 277 a day that suggests we're on a downward trend

Though someone else reckons half of Europe death tolls are in care homes 

And Wuhan revised it's death toll by 50% adding 1290 outside of hospitals

So not sure if that UK prediction is hospital only, or everyone

 

The FT reckon there has been over 45,000 dead already (all settings).

Methodology here...

 

1 minute ago, Tombwfc said:

 

The FT reckon there has been over 45,000 dead already (all settings).

Methodology here...

 

Reckon the figure would be much higher if not for the shielding scheme... credit where credit is due for that one. 

On another note, thank fuck we didn't go for herd immunity for a disease that has no guarantee of providing immunity.

5 minutes ago, only1swanny said:

Reckon the figure would be much higher if not for the shielding scheme... credit where credit is due for that one. 

R = 3 leads from 1 case to 1092 new cases in 30 days.

R = 2 leads from 1 case to 126 new cases in 30 days.

R = 1 leads from 1 case to 6 new cases in 30 days.

 

What is our "R" supposed to be at the minute? Do we know?

2 minutes ago, Sweep said:

What is our "R" supposed to be at the minute? Do we know?

Sure I heard Whitty say 1.2 about a week ago. And it needs to be down at about 0.7 so comfortably under 1 
 

quite possibly I’ve made that up in my mind though 😁

Edited April 25, 20206 yr by Escobarp

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

What is our "R" supposed to be at the minute? Do we know?

That bloke who looks like Dean Crombie said 0.8 at a press conference this week

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

What is our "R" supposed to be at the minute? Do we know?

Pretty sure a couple of days ago it was a touch under 1.

What the fuck is R?

Or is it a surprise, like in line of duty

4 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

What the fuck is R?

Or is it a surprise, like in line of duty

You say it when being tested.

10 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

What the fuck is R?

Or is it a surprise, like in line of duty

It's the number of new cases a single existing case generates in 5 days.

If it exceeds 1, even a little, cases will continue to rise exponentially.

If it below 1 new cases will drop.

The intention of social distancing was to reduce the R from an estimated 2.5 (generating 406 new cases in 30 days) to something below 1.

Sweden took a radically more relaxed stance on lockdown than most countries.

From a population of 10.3M they have had 2152 deaths and 547 currently critical.

Norway, Denmark and Finland combined have a population of 16.7M and have had 779 deaths and 183 currently critical.

21 minutes ago, MalcolmW said:

It's the number of new cases a single existing case generates in 5 days.

If it exceeds 1, even a little, cases will continue to rise exponentially.

If it below 1 new cases will drop.

The intention of social distancing was to reduce the R from an estimated 2.5 (generating 406 new cases in 30 days) to something below 1.

Sweden took a radically more relaxed stance on lockdown than most countries.

From a population of 10.3M they have had 2152 deaths and 547 currently critical.

Norway, Denmark and Finland combined have a population of 16.7M and have had 779 deaths and 183 currently critical.

yeah, but, but, Sweden's economy is booming

25 minutes ago, MalcolmW said:

It's the number of new cases a single existing case generates in 5 days.

If it exceeds 1, even a little, cases will continue to rise exponentially.

If it below 1 new cases will drop.

The intention of social distancing was to reduce the R from an estimated 2.5 (generating 406 new cases in 30 days) to something below 1.

Sweden took a radically more relaxed stance on lockdown than most countries.

From a population of 10.3M they have had 2152 deaths and 547 currently critical.

Norway, Denmark and Finland combined have a population of 16.7M and have had 779 deaths and 183 currently critical.

 

How positive are they being though?

Kim Jong-un is a wrong-un. Wonder if he's really dead

1 hour ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Sweet baby Jesus. 11 out of 10.

A few of us have made a few observations about the Government's strategy "basing it on the science" propaganda line and TBF I wasn't 100% sure they were telling the experts what to say and what not to say until they finally admitted that that Dr Strangelove has been attending the SAGE meetings. The lying toerag spin merchant is suddenly a medical expert FFS! Does he attend because they value his expertise? Does he f***.

Now I'm 100% convinced that everything they've said and done is no more than a load of spin to suck in the mugs and the people who are in denial because they desperately want the Government to do a good job and be honest with us.

33 minutes ago, Hoppy510 said:

A few of us have made a few observations about the Government's strategy "basing it on the science" propaganda line and TBF I wasn't 100% sure they were telling the experts what to say and what not to say until they finally admitted that that Dr Strangelove has been attending the SAGE meetings. The lying toerag spin merchant is suddenly a medical expert FFS! Does he attend because they value his expertise? Does he f***.

Now I'm 100% convinced that everything they've said and done is no more than a load of spin to suck in the mugs and the people who are in denial because they desperately want the Government to do a good job and be honest with us.

Salt of the earth is Cummings. Anyway did you not get the memo? 7/10.

4 hours ago, MalcolmW said:

It's the number of new cases a single existing case generates in 5 days.

If it exceeds 1, even a little, cases will continue to rise exponentially.

If it below 1 new cases will drop.

The intention of social distancing was to reduce the R from an estimated 2.5 (generating 406 new cases in 30 days) to something below 1.

Sweden took a radically more relaxed stance on lockdown than most countries.

From a population of 10.3M they have had 2152 deaths and 547 currently critical.

Norway, Denmark and Finland combined have a population of 16.7M and have had 779 deaths and 183 currently critical.

What happens when Denmark Finland and Norway end lockdown? Do their deaths accelerate at a higher rate than when Sweden end lockdown? It seems logical to me that they will. My understanding is that Lockdown just moves the deaths into the future. 

Edited April 25, 20206 yr by Mounts Kipper

7 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

What happens when Denmark Finland and Norway end lockdown? Do their deaths accelerate at a higher rate than when Sweden end lockdown? It seems logical to me that they will. My understanding is that Lockdown just moves the deaths into the future. 

 

Why would that neccesarily be the case?

A lockdown buys time, yes. But that doesn't mean a country which enters lockdown and then exits it, is at the same starting point as one that never locked down.

The post-lockdown UK (for example) will be far better prepared to stop an exponential spread of the virus than the pre-lockdown UK.

If we could go back in time, I'm sure we would lock down weeks earlier and have used that time to build up our testing, PPE, tracking and social distancing capabilities. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Tombwfc said:

 

Why would that neccesarily be the case?

A lockdown buys time, yes. But that doesn't mean a country which enters lockdown and then exits it, is at the same starting point as one that never locked down.

The post-lockdown UK (for example) will be far better prepared to stop an exponential spread of the virus than the pre-lockdown UK.

If we could go back in time, I'm sure we would lock down weeks earlier and have used that time to build up our testing, PPE, tracking and social distancing capabilities. 

 

 

I’m thinking it saves vulnerable folk now but when lockdown ends there’s a high probability they get it then and if they’re vulnerable then sadly the outcome will be the same..... that’s unless we have a vaccine developed. 

47 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

What happens when Denmark Finland and Norway end lockdown? Do their deaths accelerate at a higher rate than when Sweden end lockdown? It seems logical to me that they will. My understanding is that Lockdown just moves the deaths further into the future. 

The theory that  Den Fin and Nor are following is that the further the potential deaths are moved into the future, the more chance those deaths have of being prevented by new drugs, better understanding, more efficient medical practice, earlier testing etc. 

I don't have any stats, but I would wager that if you caught this virus in Dec, your chance of survival would be lower than if you caught it today.

For example, if the plasma antibody injection trial proves to be successful, and has a significant impact in reducing deaths in the ICU in Sept, and if it's proven that returning to work with social distancing keeps the infection rate below 1, Sweden are going to have many more deaths on their hands than the rest of Scandinavia. 

Sweden isn't a good example to compare really - it's being touted by many lockdown sceptics, but if you look at how their population are behaving, it's not much different from what's happening in the UK.  They have loads working from home, they're social distancing, some are isolating, the pubs, cafes and shops are much quieter than before, some are refusing to send their kids to school, it's like UK lite (they have low population density outside of Stockholm and low household occupation too - which helps them a bit)

The best comparisons will be between countries that locked down really early with hardly any deaths, (there's loads to pick from) Vs countries that can't lockdown or social distance because they're too poor. I'm sure we'll see massive disparity in a few months.     

Edited April 25, 20206 yr by peelyfeet

32 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

The theory that  Den Fin and Nor are following is that the further the potential deaths are moved into the future, the more chance those deaths have of being prevented by new drugs, better understanding, more efficient medical practice, earlier testing etc. 

I don't have any stats, but I would wager that if you caught this virus in Dec, your chance of survival would be lower than if you caught it today.

For example, if the plasma antibody injection trial proves to be successful, and has a significant impact in reducing deaths in the ICU in Sept, and if it's proven that returning to work with social distancing keeps the infection rate below 1, Sweden are going to have many more deaths on their hands than the rest of Scandinavia. 

Sweden isn't a good example to compare really - it's being touted by many lockdown sceptics, but if you look at how their population are behaving, it's not much different from what's happening in the UK.  They have loads working from home, they're social distancing, some are isolating, the pubs, cafes and shops are much quieter than before, some are refusing to send their kids to school, it's like UK lite (they have low population density outside of Stockholm and low household occupation too - which helps them a bit)

The best comparisons will be between countries that locked down really early with hardly any deaths, (there's loads to pick from) Vs countries that can't lockdown or social distance because they're too poor. I'm sure we'll see massive disparity in a few months.     

There's little chance of social distancing in Wirstroms in Gamla Stam. Like being in a sardine tin.... 

3 hours ago, Hoppy510 said:

A few of us have made a few observations about the Government's strategy "basing it on the science" propaganda line and TBF I wasn't 100% sure they were telling the experts what to say and what not to say until they finally admitted that that Dr Strangelove has been attending the SAGE meetings. The lying toerag spin merchant is suddenly a medical expert FFS! Does he attend because they value his expertise? Does he f***.

Now I'm 100% convinced that everything they've said and done is no more than a load of spin to suck in the mugs and the people who are in denial because they desperately want the Government to do a good job and be honest with us.

Yeah, i've been sceptical that the scientists are used because they are great scientists rather than they will say what Tory HQ wants them to say.

It seems there is some division in the Tory camp now  with Hancock and Raab wanting to extend the lockdown putting health first whereas the smooth talking Chancellor is keen to get people back to work at the expense of more lives.I'm with Hancock and Raab.Boris is a loose cannon I wouldn't be that surprised if he fucks politics off and resigns "due to health reasons" in the next few weeks.He didn't sign up for a solemn role overseeing a national disaster, he wanted to act the baffoon in the Commons, open factories and have the weekends off to have fun with his blondes in the country.HIs comments when he was a journalist show he hates Scousers as much as the most rabid manc so he's not all bad just not a serious PM