Coronavirus

[Mounts Kipper]

22 minutes ago, thegod11 said:

Frequent lurker, very seldom post but just to add a personal touch to this.

My dad currently resides at the woodlands in Little Hulton. He is 80 and suffers from Alzheimer’s hence where he is. Massive Wanderer in his day and brought my brother and I up that way, not quite sure we thank him for that.

Anyhow, received a call on Tuesday advising dad had symptoms along with the news others on his ward had tested positive. On Thursday we were told dad had tested positive. We haven’t seen dad for 6 weeks as the home locked down early.

the staff in the home have been amazing , keeping us informed at all times including a WhatsApp call yesterday but due to dad’s condition he didn’t take to it and the call was very brief but just the opportunity to talk to dad for such a short time was a blessing. He is poorly but comfortable and receiving an unbelievable level of care from people who aren’t all trained for this but care deeply.

We don’t blame anyone for this, we don’t hold anyone accountable, it’s a global crisis playing out in many different ways in many different families.

we hope dad remains comfortable and salute those that care for him whilst putting themselves at great risk.

Is he at woodlands or hospital? I know woodlands my dad was in there, its very good care and immaculate set up. Good luck hope he recovers. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[thegod11]

He’s at the hospital mate. His needs dictate it

[Wanderlust]

3 hours ago, boltondiver said:

The ones the Government use!

It's here

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-scientific-evidence-supporting-the-uk-government-response

Just imagine the scene back in February when the first case on British shores was confirmed....

Science expert 1: "Prime Minister. It spreads like f*** and if we want to minimise deaths and damage to the economy we need to lockdown now, do a ton of research and order a shedload of equipment immediately"

Boris: "Sounds good. What do you think Dominic?"

Cummings: "Sit down and shut the f*** up Boris. Did I ask for your opinion? You bunch of stupid softarse wankers! My entire career has led up to this moment and there's no way that a few dead pensioners is going to get in my way. If you want to keep your jobs, you speccy-eyed f******s will tell them we have a plan that involves doing f*** all "until the time is right". I've just sacked the Chancellor so my new puppet will offer business a token few quid sometime next month and everybody else will tow the party line. And we need a strapline."

Boris: "How about 75 million Turks will be moving in next door? Worked last time"

Cummings: "Idiot".

Science expert 2: "I suppose we could go with the herd immunity thing?"

[Mounts Kipper]

2 minutes ago, thegod11 said:

He’s at the hospital mate. His needs dictate it

Fingers crossed he pulls through. 

[thegod11]

Not after sympathy merely adding a personal perspective to a far wider crisis but appreciate the kind words.

Main reason is highlighting the above and beyond that is going on right now from people who genuinely care about people they don’t know

 

[Casino]

38 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Which one? There’s more than one no? Or are PHE lying about these being operational?

There's only one national corona virus testing centre

Its in MK

Hancock trumpeted its coming on line as being a big part of the battle

They've commandeered equipment from other test houses

25k a day it can do

It did 1500

Aye. 1500

Out of 25000

But,  nowt to worry about

We are all over this 

The govt speak very well, sadly actions speak louder

And matter more

[mickbrown]

49 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

You pay his wages 🤭😂😂😂👍

How so?

[Wanderlust]

7 minutes ago, Casino said:

There's only one national corona virus testing centre

Its in MK

Hancock trumpeted its coming on line as being a big part of the battle

They've commandeered equipment from other test houses

25k a day it can do

It did 1500

Aye. 1500

Out of 25000

But,  nowt to worry about

We are all over this 

The govt speak very well, sadly actions speak louder

And matter more

So far the Government have followed the influenza pandemic playbook (which includes zoonotic viruses such as Covid) to the letter and that's been in place for donkey's years. Here's the 2011 version published by the coalition government.

You'll notice that the planned Government "proportionate response" (pages 22 to 25) is all about what messages to give to the public at what stage e.g. in the initial stage give advice on "hand hygiene".

It is also significant that the pandemic strategy involves close co-operation and with working with Government's around the world so this nonsense about China "lying" is absolute bollocks.

What worries me is that a key plank of the strategy - and of the underpinning WHO strategies on which it is based  - is to ensure that support services e.g. the NHS have stockpiled the requisite resources to deal  with it.

Totally understand the need to get the messaging right, but the plan needed investment that wasn't forthcoming.  Sad that COBRA meetings seem to be focused on spin rather than action.

Equally sad that people's perception of "how the Government are handling it" will eventually be based on how they deliver the (pre-determined) messaging.

[Tombwfc]

10 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Don't you believe the likes of Valance, Van Tam etc when they say they are learning all the time from data gathered from all over? Shared science.

Did you watch the BBC interview earlier with Italy's pm?

Western nations don't operate culturally like for eastern ones.

Given numbers of our population won't isolate according to instructions for a couple of weeks, why do you keep banging on about shutting things down earlier?

These are the guys looking at the whole picture: medically, I'm sure they'd have loved to lockdown severely, and early. However using behaviourists etc gives a slightly different picture. In the end a balanced approach.

 

 

 

If you take what the government says at face value, then the extent to which people are co-operating is greater than what was modelled. They made allowances for more knobheads arranging BBQs with their mates on bank holiday weekends than there've actually been. By their own admission they were wrong as to how people would react to lockdown.

It's all part of the plan. 7/10.

What 1/10 would look like, who knows.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Tombwfc

[Ani]

One final point for the evening if we locked down week 3 rather than week 6. 
 

we would now becoming out of it with very deaths. But what happens next ? It has not gone away it will start again and then do we shut down again. I imagine somewhere there is some modelling that says lock down in week 6 then get it out of the way. You will not get rid of the virus whatever you do but this approach provides the flattest curve. 
 

We are not killing the virus we are minimising it’s impact. Pretty impossible for a politician to share the graph they chosen as they are basically picking an option to kill fewest. It was where the science is more important than the politics as politics would give wrong answer. 

[Sweep]

11 hours ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Who’s working that’s not essential? 

This week, my gardener has been and so has my window cleaner. I'd say neither were essential, but neither can afford not to be working, and they both pointed out the government guidelines suggest they can and should keep working.

On my "job" side, as Casino mentions, we have loads of customers in manufacturing (many not making anything like essential goods) are still operating with full teams. Again, they say unless they are told to shut, they'll keep open. I do though expect that these companies will be forced into closing in the next week or so though, as our deaths number continues to increase

[ZiggyStardust]

8 hours ago, Hoppy510 said:

So far the Government have followed the influenza pandemic playbook (which includes zoonotic viruses such as Covid) to the letter and that's been in place for donkey's years. Here's the 2011 version published by the coalition government.

You'll notice that the planned Government "proportionate response" (pages 22 to 25) is all about what messages to give to the public at what stage e.g. in the initial stage give advice on "hand hygiene".

It is also significant that the pandemic strategy involves close co-operation and with working with Government's around the world so this nonsense about China "lying" is absolute bollocks.

What worries me is that a key plank of the strategy - and of the underpinning WHO strategies on which it is based  - is to ensure that support services e.g. the NHS have stockpiled the requisite resources to deal  with it.

Totally understand the need to get the messaging right, but the plan needed investment that wasn't forthcoming.  Sad that COBRA meetings seem to be focused on spin rather than action.

Equally sad that people's perception of "how the Government are handling it" will eventually be based on how they deliver the (pre-determined) messaging.

So a document, published in 2011, by the British, proves that the Chinese were not lying about the effects or spread of the infection in 2019 ?

Maybe the document that Chamberlain brought back from Munich in 1938 proves that Germany did not invade Poland a year later.

Or is it that assumes full co-operation between governments ? Which proves nothing about the integrity of the Chinese (or other countries) data.

 

[Mounts Kipper]

52 minutes ago, Sweep said:

This week, my gardener has been and so has my window cleaner. I'd say neither were essential, but neither can afford not to be working, and they both pointed out the government guidelines suggest they can and should keep working.

On my "job" side, as Casino mentions, we have loads of customers in manufacturing (many not making anything like essential goods) are still operating with full teams. Again, they say unless they are told to shut, they'll keep open. I do though expect that these companies will be forced into closing in the next week or so though, as our deaths number continues to increase

 I’m not saying that no one is working but the vast majority of non essential staff are not working, not sure why casino seems to get into a hissy fit, check out the roads, at rush hour virtually empty, any boss who asks his staff to work and flout the social distancing without proper equipment in my eyes be liable if anything happens to their employee, window cleaners and Gardner’s should be allowed to crack on as long as the person who employs them allows them too and they practice social distancing. And yes I do know the government have not stopped non essential folk from being allowed to work, provided they social distance etc, my view is non essential businesses should play safe and furlough. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[jimmyjoojar]

11 hours ago, Ani said:

Hancock said yesterday - We have enough PPE for everyone based on the new guidelines on how the equipment should be used. 

It’s ALL total bollocks, at this moment 100%.

On Thursday afternoon I had a senior staff member at Prestwich Hospital call me and ask for ANY coveralls we could supply. I told her that we only have remaining stock of coveralls that are suitable for some limited chemical/liquid hazard protection and NOT EN14126 (Infective Agent - COVID-19) compliant. The type typically used in Asbestos, Construction, Food, Agriculture industries.

She said we’ll take anything you’ve got as by the morning they have no coveralls left to wear to treat patients with.

Heart breaking stuff!!!

[Wanderlust]

25 minutes ago, ZiggyStardust said:

So a document, published in 2011, by the British, proves that the Chinese were not lying about the effects or spread of the infection in 2019 ?

Several published policies on pandemic strategy published by the Government and the WHO over many years including an updated version recently by the current Government certainly carry more weight than a speculative article in a disreputable right wing rag aka the Express if that's what you're asking?

Especially as the rag in question offered absolutely zero proof to back up their wild claim.

Instead they based it on comments made by the MP for Tunbridge Wells who in turn said he'd heard it from "American Intelligence".

I know that the words "American" and "intelligence" are not generally used together much since Trump was elected, but if the CIA do have some evidence about the Chinese I doubt very much that the first thing they thought to themselves was "better call the MP for Tunbridge Wells to break the story".

I suppose if you read the Express you'd believe any old bollocks though.

[Spider]

As things stand, until a vaccine is found, each one of us will probably catch this at some point unless we stay locked up.

A vaccine is at least 8 months away.

Have I got this right?

[only1swanny]

2 minutes ago, Spider said:

As things stand, until a vaccine is found, each one of us will probably catch this at some point unless we stay locked up.

A vaccine is at least 8 months away.

Have I got this right?

 

They reckon September at the earliest. 

A friend is part of a team which have used a communal super computer to simulate how the virus attaches to it's host. Mind boggling stuff, that's being used to try and work out how to create the vaccine.. They've shared the work as it's not confidential, 

The aim is to somehow stop it attaching, imagine changing your locks so keys don't fit. 

The corona on the virus, (the yellow bits on the model) open up and latch on with a protein based grabber, if you want to imagine, it's like a xenomorph mouth from Alien.. A vaccine would need to prevent this from grabbing on. 

Whilst the kids watch Easter films today and eat their own weight in chocolate, I'm going to try and find out how it reproduces itself. 

[kent_white]

9 minutes ago, Spider said:

As things stand, until a vaccine is found, each one of us will probably catch this at some point unless we stay locked up.

A vaccine is at least 8 months away.

Have I got this right?

Vaccine is probably longer than that till it gets in your arm.

And each of us will need to catch it unless you want to wait for the vaccine.

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, kent_white said:

Vaccine is probably longer than that till it gets in your arm.

And each of us will need to catch it unless you want to wait for the vaccine.

Will we become immune kent once we’ve had it do you think?

[Rudy]

Have I dreamt it or is there a chance a test will be made telling you if you’ve ever had it?

[radcliffe white]

Sir Jeremy farrar was just on Andrew marr 

saying he thinks a vaccine will be ready for autumn but it’s the distribution which will be the problem 

[radcliffe white]

1 minute ago, Mr Grey said:

Imagine my disappointment as i checked in to WW and there wasn't a picture of Kelly Brooks paps! 😒

Rudy likes to slip them in when it’s getting heated, like a step back and chill

[Tonge moor green jacket]

11 hours ago, Ani said:

To be fair. I think the made what they thought were the right decisions at the time. Be interesting to see in retrospect if they would have done differently. That is not slagging them off but given how full the tube was for the days after the event, the inability of some people to follow advice etc would they push harder a bit sooner ? Also they now know more about the virus so again would learnings change those calls. 

Yes, I'll go with that, shot. Importantly, that doesn't mean what they did was wrong at the time.

Mick for example keeps going on that we should have locked down earlier, and from a purely medical point of view it would appear that had we done so we may have saved more initially. So yes perhaps we should.

I go back to the behavioural guys understanding how people work- they've also been shown to be correct- so an earlier lock down may have worked, but would it have led to more breaking the restrictions as the weeks to on. Effectively leading to a lower, but longer peak?

We don't know, clearly. The science will grow and so will preparedness.

[jimmyjoojar]

12 hours ago, kent_white said:

Can you get us any FFP testing fluid? We've got the PPE - we just don't have the fluid to test it!

Sadly Kent we don’t product that. We manufacture coveralls, affiliated accessories (overshoes, gowns, sleeves etc) medical visor shields & masks.

Nearly all of which are sold out, pending air-freight new China stock at massively inflated rates.

I know of at least three companies sitting on stock and only willing to sell at top dollar (8-10 times normal price).

Its criminal.... genuinely.

Why haven’t the Govt passed legislation to be able to secure stocks upon landing in the UK, directly from the airports. They’ll be able to see what’s coming in on each waybill/loading doc from Wuhan (coincidentally where 90% of China made disposable PPE is produced. Which has only served to fuck things up further as factories were forced to shutdown) or confiscate stock that companies have already and direct it to the NHS? Then compensate them at cost?

[Tonge moor green jacket]

9 hours ago, Tombwfc said:

 

If you take what the government says at face value, then the extent to which people are co-operating is greater than what was modelled. They made allowances for more knobheads arranging BBQs with their mates on bank holiday weekends than there've actually been. By their own admission they were wrong as to how people would react to lockdown.

It's all part of the plan. 7/10.

What 1/10 would look like, who knows.

That's good. Wonder what folk would have done with a more stringent one?

All helpful in improving models for the future.